Bitcoin könnte weiterhin seine Rolle als globaler sicherer Hafen spielen, da ein Wall Street-Veteran Jerome Powell und seine Pro-Inflationspolitik in seinem neuesten Meinungsleitartikel in die Luft jagt.

Die Benchmark-Kryptowährung könnte steigen, da Andrew Parlin, Gründer/Chef-Investment-Officer bei Washington Peak Investment Advisors in New Jersey, davor warnt, wie der Vorsitzende der Federal Reserve alles falsch gedacht hat, wenn er erwartet, die Inflation in der Nähe des bevorzugten 2-Prozent-Ziels der Zentralbank zu halten.

Das wird schwieriger, da Herr Powell verspricht, die Zinssätze nahe Null zu halten und weiterhin Staats- und Unternehmensschulden mit einer Rate von 1,4 Billionen Dollar pro Jahr bis 2024 zu kaufen.

„Wenn diese politische Haltung unvereinbar erscheint, dann deshalb, weil sie es ist“, bemerkte Mr. Parlin.

EINE BESCHEIDENE HYPERINFLATION VORAUS?

Der Anlageberater bezeichnete den erweiterten dovishen Ausblick von Herrn Powell als ein völlig asymmetrisches geldpolitisches Experiment. Für ihn könnte die lockere Politik der Fed unkalkulierbare Verluste durch eine „verfestigte Inflation“ verursachen, wie sie die USA seit Jahrzehnten nicht mehr gesehen haben.

„In Anbetracht der aufgeblähten Vermögenspreise wäre der darauf folgende Einbruch wahrscheinlich ungewöhnlich heftig und langwierig“, fügte Herr Parlin hinzu.

Der Finanzveteran erklärte weiter, dass die fröhliche Ablehnung von Inflationsrisiken durch Herrn Powell aus den niedrigeren Verbraucherpreisen seit dem Zusammenbruch 2008 resultiert.

Er fand das Fraktal irrelevant, wenn man es auf die Bedingungen nach der Pandemie überträgt, insbesondere wenn man die erhöhten Stimulierungspakete der US-Regierung in den letzten 12 Monaten betrachtet, die etwa fünfmal so hoch sind wie die Fiskalausgaben, die auf die Rezession von 2008-2009 hinweisen.

„Der gesunde Menschenverstand deutet auf das Risiko eines gewaltigen Inflationsschubs hin, der weit über der 2,4-Prozent-Projektion der Fed für 2021 liegt“, so Parlin.

BITCOIN…

…stieg um mehr als 1.500 Prozent von seinem Tiefststand im März 2020 bei 3.858 Dollar an.

Investoren strömten in die Kryptowährung, in dem Glauben, dass sie als Versicherungsanlage gegen steigende Verbraucherpreisindizes dienen würde. Das Narrativ war einfach: Bitcoin hat eine begrenzte Angebotsobergrenze von 21 Millionen Token, während der US-Dollar, ein globaler Wertaufbewahrungsort, mit einem unendlichen Angebot ausgestattet ist. Eine goldähnliche Knappheit macht Bitcoin zu einer alternativen Absicherung für den Parkwert.

„In einer Welt, in der es Aktien im Wert von 90 Billionen Dollar gibt und Gott weiß wie viele Billionen an Fiat-Währung und so weiter… ist es die falsche Marktgröße, zum Beispiel im Vergleich zu Gold, das 8 oder 9 Billionen Dollar wert ist“, sagte der Milliardär und Investor Paul Tudor Jones letztes Jahr in einem Interview mit Yahoo Finance. Bitcoin wurde damals nur knapp unter $20.000 gehandelt.

Die Kryptowährung stieg bis ins Jahr 2021 dreimal an und erreichte Mitte März ein neues Rekordhoch von über $61.000. Auch hier beschleunigte sich das Wachstum von Bitcoin, nachdem Unternehmen, darunter Tesla, MicroStrategy und Square, BTC im Wert von Milliarden Dollar in ihre Bilanzen aufnahmen.

Tesla hat ebenfalls begonnen, Bitcoin als Zahlungsmittel für seine Elektrofahrzeuge zu akzeptieren, was die Kryptowährung als futuristisches Wertaufbewahrungsmittel legitimiert.

Der Inflationsalarm hat bereits begonnen, ganz im Einklang mit dem, wovor Herr Parlin gewarnt hat. Am Sonntag berichtete die Financial Times, dass viele US-Unternehmen vor steigenden Geschäftskosten gewarnt haben, was die ersten Arten von Inflationsflackern zeigt. Bitcoin wird bei Redaktionsschluss knapp über $56,000 gehandelt.

Fondsforvaltere hos Bank of America har udtrykt en bullish stemning over for Bitcoin.

Få daglige kryptobrevings og ugentlige Bitcoin-markedsrapporter leveret direkte til din indbakke.

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En undersøgelse af investeringsforvaltere med over 500 millioner dollars under ledelse viser, at flertallet er bullish på Bitcoin og aktier, men forventer, at dollaren vil bukke under for inflationstryk.

Et Bitcoin, risikomæssigt investeringsmiljø

Resultatet af fondsforvalterens undersøgelse afslørede, at investorer er meget optimistiske med hensyn til opsvinget i den globale økonomi på trods af stigende COVID-19-tal .

Andelen af ​​fondsforvaltere, der forventer en positiv meddelelse på aktiemarkedet, er den højeste i 11 år.

Yderligere har Bitcoin slået teknologi-aktier , som havde topplaceringen siden oktober 2020, i lang rækkefølge, hvilket gjorde BTC til den mest overfyldte handel. Mere end 92% af de investorer, der deltog i undersøgelsen, forventer, at inflationen bliver høj; derfor har de overfyldte ordrer med korte dollars.

Investeringernes risikovillighed er på rekordhøje niveauer og konvergerer mod aktier og Bitcoin

Undersøgelsesresultater for risikovilligheden hos fondsforvaltere med BofA. Kilde: Reuters
De største skræmmere for markederne er den langsomme udrulning af vacciner (30% af deltagerne), mindre finanspolitisk og monetær stimulus (29%) og en blowout af Wall Street-boblen (18%).

Ledende hedgefondforvaltere og økonomer globalt er bekymrede over den kommende inflation i den amerikanske dollar. Bitcoin dukker langsomt op som et robust alternativ.

More and more large companies and investors are buying Bitcoin.

In the course of 2020, many well-known players in the traditional financial sector have invested in Bitcoin ( BTC ), including investment guru Paul Tudor Jones and software manufacturer MicroStrategy . However, they only form the vanguard for a whole flood of funds that will soon be flushed into the market-leading cryptocurrency by large investors.

At least that’s what Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the founders and operators of the Gemini crypto exchange, think

„These are the smartest investors, the smartest of the smart ones are quietly buying Bitcoin, so there is no close-of-the-gate panic (FOMO) behind this,“ Tyler said in an interview with CNBC. He sees the institutional investors as the driving force behind the current soaring of Cryptosoft scam, and not the small private investors as with the big crypto hype of 2017.

In addition to Tudor Jones and MicroStrategy, Stanley Druckermiller, MassMutual, Guggenheim Partners and the Twitter boss-operated payment service provider Square also invested in Bitcoin this year , although this decision is largely due to the uncertain economic situation and the loose monetary policy of the central banks.

Bitcoin is often interpreted as a store of value and a „safe haven“, a narrative that Tudor Jones and Druckermiller also agree with.

Tyler Winklevoss adds in the interview:

„In addition, listed companies such as Square and MicroStrategy are now investing their company assets in Bitcoin because they are afraid of the impending inflation that hangs over us like the sword of Damocles due to the continuous printing of money and the Corona aid packages.“

When asked whether Bitcoin is suitable as a means of transaction due to the high volatility of the cryptocurrency, the Winklevoss twins counter that Bitcoin is much more a financial product that should be “bought and held” because, as Tyler explains, they see “Bitcoin as an emerging store of value that can compete with gold and bitcoin’s market cap up to 9 trillion. US dollar drives „. The cryptocurrency does not have to be usable as a transaction medium, which in turn would mean that the volatility is also not disadvantageous. In addition, the volatility would decrease over time anyway.

At press time, Bitcoin’s market cap is $ 335 billion, far from the forecast $ 9 trillion. US dollar is away, even though the previous record high of 2017 was broken this year .

Nearly $4 billion worth of bitcoin was transferred from long-term storage to the chain in November 2020.

Nearly 200,000 BTCs stored between 2013 and 2015 are now active again.

However, the data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin HODlers is actually increasing.

The Trust Project is an international consortium of media organizations based on transparency standards.

About $4 billion of Immediate Bitcoin that has been inactive for five to seven years has been removed from long-term storage following the massive price hike in November.

Unchained Capital revealed the news via a data visualization on December 3. Unchained’s „HODL Waves“ metric measures Bitcoin activity by storage duration. The total share of Bitcoin supply blocked in storage for between five and seven years increased from 5.48% to 4.67% between November 1 and November 30.

Nearly 1% of #bitcoin’s total supply left long-term storage (> 1 year at the same address) during the price increase from $13,700 to $1,670 in November.

61.43% of #bitcoin’s supply has remained unchanged for > 1 year.

Some long-term investors benefit

Investors who locked in their crypto-money in 2013 did so at a price level averaging between $134 and $1,151. In 2014 and 2015, the average price was between $500 and $750.

With the closing of Bitcoin at $18,702 on November 30, long-term investors would have earned between 1,524% and 13,856%.
Bitcoin All-Time Price Chart | Source: TradingView

According to the HODL Waves calculation, 1.19% of the total bitcoin supply has left this storage category and has become chain-active.

Based on the current total supply of ~ 18,561,000 BTCs at the time of publication of this article, this represents more than 220,000 BTCs, with a present value of approximately $4.2 billion.
Age distribution of Bitcoin UTXO (Source: HODL Waves)

Bitcoin HODLers don’t give up

The data reveal a mix of long-term strategies. The vast majority of long-term investors are not only holders, but also increase their holdings.

While the previous five to seven year long-term storage category fell by more than 1%, the ten year storage category actually increased by 0.19%, from 9.73% to 9.92%.

The long-term storage category between seven and ten years also increased by 0.2%, from 7.08% to 7.28%. Similarly, the three to five year storage category jumped 0.69% from 10.06% to 10.85%.

In fact, the data shows that it is mainly the short-term storage categories that experienced declines in holdings. Overall, more than 61% of Bitcoin’s total supply has not moved at all for more than a year.

According to some, these data seem to validate the position that Bitcoin could be more considered as a valuable asset pool and inflation hedge as opposed to a mere speculative instrument.

On November 19, BeInCrypto reported that the Glassnode data revealed a huge increase in the creation of new Bitcoin addresses, with the number of new Bitcoin addresses only increasing in January 2018.

Chain Analyst Willy Woo predicted that Bitcoin’s Network Value Transaction (NVT) rate, which was at an all-time high in mid-November, was due to the presence of „underlying long-term investors“. This would lead Bitcoin to a new historical record, which then took place on November 30.

Increased interest in crypto has led South African regulators to establish that they will be considered as financial products.

As interest in cryptology increases, South African regulators see the need to establish clear regulations for cryptology.

Thus, the South African financial regulator published a draft declaration of crypto assets as financial products.

Crypto regulations

Certainly this year we have noticed a significant increase in the adoption and use of cryptomontages. However, South Africa is among the last to make such efforts.

Thus, South Africa’s efforts follow a strong interest among retail investors in crypto.

In this regard, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) announced the publication of „a draft declaration of crypto assets as a financial product under the Financial Intermediation and Advisory Services Act“.

Therefore, the draft incorporates some recommendations for the regulation of crypto currencies as a financial product under the FAIS Act.

„Any person providing advice or intermediation services in relation to crypto … must be licensed under the FAIS Act as a financial service provider and must comply with the requirements …“, the publication noted.

That is, providers of crypto services, including crypto exchanges like Bitcoin Rush, will have to register with the FSCA as service providers.

Positive or negative regulation?

Many in the crypto community see regulation as a necessary step towards adoption. However, we must also take into account that this will depend on the type of regulation.

The type of regulation that is excessive and suffocating is bound to die or wipe out the sector.

Therefore, every time we talk about regulation, fear permeates the environment.

Thus, according to the publication, the draft will serve as an „intermediate step“ in mitigating certain immediate risks in the environment; especially pending further development by the country’s Active Crypto Regulatory Working Group which will obviously affect South Africa’s future crypto policies.

The financial regulator also clarified that „the draft … in no way impacts the status of crypto assets in the context of other legislation. Nor does it attempt to regulate, legitimise or give credit to crypto currencies“.

In addition, the FSCA is open to comments on the draft from interested parties until 28 January 2021.

Watch out for your cryptos ! – GoDaddy is one of the largest web hosts and domain name managers. This year, she was the victim of a series of hacks, the most recent of which involved several companies in the cryptocurrency industry.

Hijacked crypto project websites

According to a recent report from cyber security research platform KrebsOnSecurity , hackers attempted to attack several crypto platforms hosted by GoDaddy in mid-November.

The Liquid.com exchange is one of the targets of hackers. According to Mike Kayamori , CEO of Liquid, on November 13:

“The domain hosting provider ‚GoDaddy‘, which manages one of our main domain names, mistakenly transferred control of the account and the domain to a malicious actor (…). This allowed the actor to modify the DNS records and, in turn, to take control of a number of internal email accounts (…) the malicious actor was able to partially compromise our infrastructure and gain access to storage of documents. “

The Bitcoin Trader review site , which specializes in leasing computing power for cryptocurrency mining, also reported similar issues on November 18. Some settings of his domain names at GoDaddy had been „changed without authorization“ , briefly redirecting email and web traffic.

For security, NiceHash then froze all client funds for approximately 24 hours .

Compromised GoDaddy employee accounts

According to KrebsOnSecurity’s research, other cryptoasset-related project sites may have been targeted, including Bibox.com , Celsius.network , and Wirex .

According to the first information provided by GoDaddy on the incident, some of its employees have been victims of a social engineering scam , such as voice phishing ( voice phishing , via the phone).

“As malicious actors become more sophisticated and aggressive in their attacks, we are constantly training our employees on new tactics that could be used against them and adopting new security measures to prevent future attacks. “

Dan Race, spokesman for GoDaddy

The hackers would thus have succeeded in recovering the credentials of GoDaddy employees, by fooling them on the phone so that they enter their data on a fake site .

Other than Liquid and NiceHash, the other crypto companies have not reported how much GoDaddy’s failures may have affected them (if it has).

In the crypto-asset sector, vigilance should always be required. For a user of these services, activating two-factor authentication (2FA) can already constitute an additional security barrier.